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I calculated how many players will get the 20 wins in this challenge


Soul Crusher
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How it works:

Every match you either win or you lose. That means that if you let a lot of players play half the players will win and half the players will lose. I took the example of a million players because it's a nice number to work with that should be around how much players there are. So this way I won't get a lot of decimal numbers in the spreadsheet I made. You can see here the spreadsheet in Google Docs. All I needed was to know results of players that knew what rank they ended. I got one from someone who ended #935 and had 25 wins. In the most right column you can see 38,14 for 24 wins; 22,12 for 25 wins and 12,76 for 26 wins. If you take the sum of the people who had 25 or more wins you get 51,82. This means that 51,82 / 1.000.000 will reach 25 or more wins. We had 935 players with 25 or more wins, so this means 1.000.000 x 935 / 51,82 = 18 million players played in this tournament.

Since 66,041946 players out of 1 million reach 20 wins, that means we'll get around 1200 players who reach the 20 wins on their first try. The next depends on if everyone keeps playing. Assuming everyone will try the 20 win challenge 5 times and stops playing if they reach 20 wins(because you can't retry the challenge) there will be around 6000(5957 as answer) people who complete the challenge. If everyone plays it three times, only 3500 players will get the 20 wins. If we as a community want 1 million players to reach 20 wins, everyone who doesn't get 20 wins for the challenge will have to play it 864 times.

submitted by /u/Ahekahek
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