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reddit[Effort Post] What an analysis of 30000 battles tells us about the trophies won/lost algorithm.


Soul Crusher
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Disclaimer: I did NOT analyze ladder matchmaking, I analyzed how many trophies were won and lost by each player after the match.

TLDR:

  • The trophies you win is based off the difference in starting trophies and some rng.
  • This graph summarizes the trophy difference and the percentage that you win a certain amount of trophies

Intro:

I have been playing CR for almost 4 years and have had many cases of losing 33 trophies after a battle and tilting. So I had to the question " What is the algorithm that tells the game how many trophies to take away and give to the opponent?" In this post I will detail the findings of an investigation into 30455 battles and give my explanation to what determines how many trophies you win and lose.

How this investigation was done:

For this investigation, I used top players from various regions around the globe. All battles were over 6k trophies (most were over 6.5k) so the amount of trophies won is equal to the amount lost.

I sampled 1850 players from various regions around the globe and got all the ladder battles off their battle log. Then I calculated the difference in starting trophies between the player I was looking at and their opponent. I then calculated a value I called "Trophy Exchange" from the "trophyChange" value in the CR api. I defined trophy exchange to be |30 - trophyChange|.

To better explain this, I'll show with an example. If player A starts the match with 6500 trophies and player B enters with 6530 and player A wins 33 trophies, the Trophy exchange value would be |30-33| which would go in as 3.

I tracked the difference in starting trophies and the trophy exchange in the Raw Data sheet in this spreadsheet. For every difference between 0 and 60 trophies, I tracked the trophy exchange for each battle. I then the calculated the percentage, given a specific starting trophy difference, that a player will win a certain amount of trophies. This led me to this graph.

Conclusion:

There are 2 major conclusions we can draw from this analysis:

  1. If two players start at the same trophies, the winner will receive 30 trophies and the loser will lose 30.
  2. For every 12 trophies of difference between the players starting trophies, we see that there is a 50% chance to receive 1+ difference /12 (rounded down) and a 50% chance to receive difference//12 trophies

Based on the graph, it is clear that there is some slight rng involved in matchmaking. We can also infer the algorithm that SC used to determine how many trophies you win and lose for battles over 6k trophies

From this data, we can hypothesize the trophies won algorithm. For example, if 2 players A and B enter a match, the algorithm will take in both Player A and Player B's trophies. It calculates the difference between trophies, divides it by 12 and rounds it down. I will call that number C. The player with less starting trophies is the "underdog". There are 2 possible outcomes here, assuming A is the underdog.

  1. A wins: The trophies A wins is 30 + C with a 50% chance A wins 31 + C
  2. B wins: B wins 30-C trophies, with a 50% chance to win 31 -C trophies.

The trophies lost is equal to the trophies the opponent won (if the battle happened over 6k trophies).

Further investigations:

This analysis only focused on battles that happened over 6000 trophies. I believe the algorithm for calculating trophies won holds for all trophy ranges but that question has not been fully investigated yet.

Thanks for sticking to the end!

submitted by /u/NovaLightCR
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