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reddit Statistical proof that new Clan Chest is better than old one.


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We come from here: https://www.reddit.com/r/ClashRoyale/comments/ikv902/official_rewards_and_you_a_clan_wars_2_story/

And here: https://www.reddit.com/r/ClashRoyale/comments/ilg9wu/do_we_get_more_rewards_from_the_new_update_or_did/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

And I wanted to offer another vision

u/drewsupercel u/eatemalive123

Disclaimer: I started this analysis with the idea that the new system is worse. My analysis lead me to change my mind. Data does not lie. It is true that with the new system, it is harder to get a 1st place chest (Old chance: 79% each 2 weeks, new chance 40% each 2 weeks). But this is compensated by getting more 2nd place and 3rd place chests (which have also good rewards).

Caveat: We all like to win. We don't like 2nd place or 3rd place. Even if two 2nd place is better than one 1st place, our subconscious prefers always the 1st place. The old system made a very good joob at keeping everyone happy (With a 79% chance to get a 1st place chest, most players would get one). The new system makes you feel worse (With a 40% chance, most players will NOT get a 1st place chest in 2 weeks, and they will feel like they are missing something)

_______________________________________________________________________________

In order to keep the post short, I will go straight to the major contention point. The clan war chest (the one you used to get each 14 days and now you get every week, which has varying contents depending on your clan's placement). For simplicity's sake I will assume that the chests' rewards are equivalent old and new. It is true that the chances for a legendary card are slightly increased, but the gold is decreased, so it evens out. More detailed calculations can be made if need be. To avoid any gold-conversion, I will use the contents of a Legendary League 1st place chest as a value of 1. The other chests will have a proportional fraction of the contents.

Chest Relative Value Cards total Rares
1st place 1 630 126
2nd place 0,9 570 114
3rd place 0,81 510 102
4th / 5th place 0,71 450 90

This chest has big rewards, and has changed from bi-weekly to weekly, most of the rewards lost in the update are supossedly compensated by having this chest come up more often. However, the chances to get a 1st place legendary chest have gone drastically down, since you used to have 7 opportunities each 14 days to get that 1st place, and now, you have only 2 opportunities each 14 days.

To exemplify, I am going to simulate an Average Joe in an Average Clan. Joe is not a pro and his win rate is an average 50%. His clanmates are just like him. The chances of winning and losing are therefore equal, and therefore in a boat race or old clan war, he has a 1/5 chance of placing 1st, a 1/5 chance of placing 5th, and so on. This are the expected clan chests that Joe will gain over a 14-day period with the old and new system. We will assume he is in legendary league (all other leagues work exactly the same)

Clan Wars 1 Chance Relative value Value
1st place 79 % 1 0,79
2nd place 18 % 0,9 0,162
3rd place 2,5 % 0,81 0,02
4th & 5th place 0,5 % 0,71 0,003
Total (14 days) 0,975

Clan Wars 2, 7 days Chance Relative value Value
1st place 20 % 1 0,2
2nd place 20 % 0,9 0,18
3rd place 20 % 0,81 0,162
4th & 5th place 40 % 0,71 0,142
Total (7 days) 0,684
Total x2 (14 days) 1,368

Summary with what is lost/win (Using u/eatemalive123Shop gold value for cards, but treating gems separatedly). Note= If you want to use the shop values for card/gold conversion, it does not change much because both the old version and the new version is equally affected. The total result will be higher but the difference between the old and new will be similar.

Item (daily average) Clan Wars 1 Clan Wars 2
Daily gifts x3 (2 free chest + 1 other gift) 900 / 5 gems 0
Free Shop Item 150 / 1 gem 1.094 / 2,8 gems
Collection Battles 375 0
War Day Attack 250 0
War Placement Bonus 250 2.000
War Pouch Bonus 400 / 1 gem 0
Boat Attacks (very easy to always win) 0 2.000
Clan War Chest 3.200 4.500
Quests 570 / 1,4 gems 0
Quests Chests 1.500 0
Total 7.595 / 8,4 gems 9.594 / 2,8 gems
Difference +5,6 gems +2.000 gold

If anyone points out a mistake in this summary table I will gladly correct it.

Addendum: There are still a couple of major issues that shift hard the balance of the new clan wars.

"Abusable loopholes" that need fixing

Loophole 1: The time zones issue. Since the decks reset at local times (instead of global) players to the east have their decks reset earlier and thus can race forward faster than those to the west.Possible solution: Make it so that deck 1 refreshes at 00:00 GMT, deck 2 refreshes at 06:00 GMT, deck 3 refreshes at 12:00 GMT and deck 4 refreshes at 12:00 GMT. (GMT can be changed with other time zone, but should be the same for all the players, not local)

Loophole 2: Another issue still pending is the fact that players can join a clan and do their clan war attacks instantly. So you could have 200 players sequentially join a clan & attack & leave so that the clan is instantly pushed to the finish line. to 1st place.Possible solution: Clan war cooldown for new members (like for donations)

Issue 3: Small clans don't have a fighting chance and might not even be able to finish the race.

submitted by /u/Daigixo
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